The Powers That Be

Joe Muench, Columnist for the El Paso Times had a good column this weekend.  You can read it HERE.

I like his thoughts on the certain political factions in town.  It something that the democratic party never talks about in public. Reyes, Chavez, Shapleigh and Jones keep their deep dislike of each other held closely, but we all see it.

The only issues I have with Muench's column is that he overstates Shapleigh's power, understates Reyes' and gives Chavez way too much credit.

1.  Shapleigh has become so polarizing and patronizing that many of his minions are backing away from him.  Some of his mantras/ideas are becoming so for out there that it's getting hard for his followers to claim him. 

Representative Byrd, Ortega, and O'Rourke are all in trouble right now for their progressive ideas.  Being "Shapleigh Campers" isn't helping their cause.  In a time when citizens are seeing red over tax bills it's probably not a good thing to attach yourself to the guy asking for more and more taxpayer funded entitlements.  Ortega and O'Rourke have made a clear effort to try and be their "own guy" for a while now.

Shapleigh is also making a few enemies by his unwillingness to give credit to others.  He calls the Paul Foster School of Medicine the "Medical School of the Americas," knowing full well that that is wrong.  This does not bring favor to him from the big money guys in town.  Shapleigh thinks he can rely on the Mission Valley to vote him into office and doesn't need the power players with all the dough. 

He's dead wrong.  Chavez runs the valley and she hates him.  It's curtains for Shapleigh if he has to rely on the Valley to win from now on.   Not even Veronica Escobar can save him.

Shapleigh does have his eye on Reyes' congressional seat, but was dealt a severe blow when our congressman was named chairman of a major committee.   He'll just have to wait.

2. Norma Chavez is a match head doused in gasoline.  She's popular with the voters, but isn't making any friends among the other politicos in town.

Muench indicates that newly elected Marisa Marquez and Chavez are on speaking terms - they're not.  Norma Chavez reportedly flew into a rage when she found out that Marquez was being courted by the Shapleigh campers and was seen hanging out with them.  Marquez is not an ally anymore.

Chavez's "fight first, fight second and ask questions third" style is absolutely the reason she's so popular in El Paso.  We love a good fight and she delivers. 

Chavez will always be a force on her own, but will not sustain political relationships.  She's way too reactionary to create calculated longterm relationships with other powerful people.

She will run for or congress or Shapleigh's seat.  Either one would piss Shapleigh off and that's fine for her.  She has a real problem with Shapleigh constant need to take credit for everything.

Chavez obviously has a score to settle with Reyes because he ran his sister against her.  You don't challenge the queen for the crown unless you're ready to be hunted down and dealt with.

Chavez can win a congressional race with her east side and lower valley popularity. She'll only last one term in congress.  Washington will eat her alive, unfortunately.

3. Reyes is on his way out.  He has most of his family sewed up in nice Washington jobs and the few that are left here in th region are great at extorting money out of people using Reyes's office. 

Reyes wants out of the game.  He's got a nice place in DC and when he retires that's where you'll find him.  He's got nothing left to win here in El Paso. He walks away a champion much to the dismay of Chavez and Shapleigh.

4.  The Jones network is almost dead.  Luther seems to be able to slide in his candidates in low turnout districts like east side.  His success won't last that much longer. Besides, there's no cold hard cash being exchanged anymore so the fun is all gone for Luther and his buddies.  What's the point of having an office if you can't make some cash off of it?

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The next big faction will be conservative and it will come in on a wave of tax frustration.  There will be lots of "converts" ready to make a huge change in their political affiliation.  Their pocket books will finally squeeze them over to the other party.  Who will be the next political "boss" in town?

Comments

[reyes]

Marty Reyes is not Silvestre's sister. She's his sister-in-law.

[lisaT]

Me. Me. Oh can it be me. Just this once. Ok that thought is done with for the moment.

David if you expect some kind of new political affiliation to rise up it will only be for a short period as El Paso likes what it has and won't change even if forced to.