The El Paso Times felt it necessary to conduct another poll for both contested primaries for the house seats in districts 78 and 76. Who knows why they wanted to do this, but the fact is they did and I have questions about one of the races.
As for the district 76 race... it looks like money does talk in democrat races. Norma, who was championed as "unbeatable" by everyone including Jesus H. Christ himself, finds herself in the fight of her life (and believe me, this woman does a lot of fighting). The poll in this race is spot on in my opinion. The people they polled are a very predictable group that votes very consistently. It's going to be a wild election day over in district 76.
If Norma wins she will be as bad as she has ever been. She will seek revenge on everyone who crossed her and will be absolutely terrible for our representation in Austin. Another Bum Steer Award is coming her way.
As for the Margo vs. Kleberg race - can't trust the numbers. Since I'm running in almost the exact same district, I've been looking at the numbers. On the third day of early voting my numbers guy (very good - will work for you and is damn good. Contact me if you want his info) and I looked at the list of people who had already voted in the Republican primary. This is what he found:
Only 787 of the 1,725 in the file voted in Republican primary and were on our existing list.
Of those 787:
218 had only voted once before
245 had voted twice before
162 had voted three times before
162 had voted four times before
3 voted in 2002 and 2010 only
6 voted in 2004 and 2010 only
12 voted in 2006 and 2010 only
195 voted in 2008 and 2010 only
These numbers wreck any poll that is based on "likely primary voters." The first and most obvious thing of note is that almost 1,000 of the 1,700 voters who voted early haven't voted in a Republican party in El Paso in the last 10 years. That means the majority of the voters who voted in the first three days couldn't have been polled because they appear on no list as "likely primary voters" in the Republican primary. Who did these 1,000 people vote for? I guess we'll have to wait until election day.
This is a race where 1,000 votes could be 15 percent of the total turnout. We have 1,000 unqualified votes cast - 1,000 people who came to vote and we have no idea why they decided to vote in the Republican primary this year. I haven't looked at the list for the final days of early voting, but I suspect that the trend continued through the end of early voting. We could be talking 3,000 non-traditional Republican voters in this race and the only thing that has changed in the race is the inclusion of Kleberg.
I'm not saying Kleberg is winning or Margo is winning. All I'm saying is that the people they polled aren't the people who have voted in this race (which is why I have some confidence in my chances even though the poll in the Times showed that less than one half of one person was voting for me).
Also look at the margin of error. It's 4.1 and that means if you take four from Margo and give Kleberg four you're talking about a very close race where dozens, not hundreds, of votes will make the difference.
You have to wonder which of these guys is going to turnout the election day votes. You also have to remember that Margo has an edge on election day voters given they are likely to vote for incumbents or names familiar to them on the ballot.
I do not know why the Times called this race today when it's obvious that this thing won't be over until the clock strikes seven on Tuesday.