Tom Brown has filed notice that he intends to recall three elected officials over their votes on the gay benefits issue. Here's how I see this going down.
Representative Byrd
Representative Byrd is going to come out just fine. The chances of a white Baptist preacher making any in-roads in the mostly liberal agnostic/atheist voting block of her district are small. Remember, they've voted for Byrd before and I'm sure they'd do it again - they know who represents them and they are fine with her vote and her politics in general. Even if Brown gathers enough signatures, she'll trounce anyone they put up against her. She always does.
Not helping Brown in that race will be the presence of a candidate run by the developers/business community who have been angry with Byrd since she was born. They never seem to find anyone that smells of quality and they only infuriate Byrd more with their smash-mouth campaign rhetoric. Whoever the developers put up will rob votes from whoever Brown puts up and it will be a wash in the end.
Bottom line - Byrd's liberal district supports her. And I say "liberal district" because only a small portion of the population vote and they just happen to all be communists (liberals). If the rest of the district would wake up they could change who represents them. However, that's never going to happen.
Representative Ortega
I don't think Brown has all that much sway in Ortega's district, but I think he could conceivably come up with the signatures to make Ortega fight. I'm not real sure Brown will be able to find a viable candidate to oust Ortega, though.
The business community may put someone up, but they might not. They don't "need" the vote as council sits now.
I also don't know how far a white Baptist man slinging around the name of Jesus is going to get in that district. I can't see Brown getting a lot of support here unless he infiltrates residents at the precinct chair level. Again, I'm not sure those people would be receptive to Brown's message - not that they don't hate gays, because they do, but because they don't trust white guys like Brown.
The Mayor
Mayor Cook is a dead man walking... as politics go. The reversal of the voter's will is just the beginning of his problems. This recall is not a good thing for him at all. It's the worst possible thing at the worst possible time.
Pastor Brown needs about 6,000 signatures to recall the mayor and I'm sure he could have that many alone on the West side. A lot has happened since the Mayor won his last election in a landslide.
Many in the community have been seething since they mistook the Mayor's comments during the big freeze on broken water pipes as flippant instead of what they really were - honest. If you don't remember what I'm talking about - the mayor basically told reporters he couldn't do anything to help the man on the street because he's not a plumber and that's what they needed. He was right, but El Paso tends to take any chance to be a victim and run with it, and that is exactly what they did.
In the end it doesn't matter what I think or what the public should think - they don't like what he said at all and they will exact their revenge here.
(On a side note - There's a lesson in here about how the government can't solve all your problems and the mayor - a democrat - delivered that message in the clearest possible way and nobody seemed to get it.)
The Mayor has been increasingly marginalized by just about every interest group since being reelected - here's how they fall...
The business community has moved on from him knowing they will need someone to run for the seat when he leaves. They never loved him in the first place, but they didn't hate him either. They can quietely promote the signing of the recall petition and run their own candidate in the recall election knowing he or she will be in the best position to win in such a short time. This recall most benefits this group seeing as they are in the best position to execute a quick, effective election effort. The mayor is powerless in the City Manager form of government, so if he does happen to win, the business community doesn't have a whole lot to fear.
Side note on business community - across the board they were appalled that the mayor handed the President of the United States his BBQ sauce when they met. They knew it was a very embarrassing moment for the city.
The Greenies hate anybody who does not do exactly as they demand. Transmountain and the Mayor's refusal to lay down in front of the bulldozers that will eventually widen it are enough for them to help circulate the recall petition even though they love gay people and hate Pastor Brown. They are opportunists just like everyone else. However, their spite will not benefit them because they do not have the resources to put together an effective campaign for a candidate of their choice and will end up losing ground for their causes to a business backed candidate. The Greenies can not help but get involved even though I'm warning them here that they will shoot themselves in the foot in the end.
The "Average Joe" voter will ride the popular feeling of righteous indignation at the overturning of the voter's will and gladly sign the recall petition. They have no great connection to the Mayor and there's a general anti-incumbent sentiment running through their ranks, so is should be easy to get them to sign.
Let's also not forget that many El Pasoans simply don't approve of the gay lifestyle and will sign the recall petition in order to make their voices heard. Do not underestimate the anti-gay sentiment in El Paso - it is much more common than any of you would allow yourself to think.
Once the Mayor is recalled, the fun starts. As I have noted, the business community has been searching for the Mayor's replacement for quite some time now. This person will be called into action earlier than they anticipated, but they will be well funded, well advised and likely to win easily. Mayor Cook's campaign account will not be filled to the level it was at before. He doesn't have another term after the one he's currently serving, so there's no reason to invest in him for the very short amount of time he'll be in office after the recall election - especially given all the realities I outlined above.
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As I have stated in the past - Tom Brown's candidates will make a dent in any race. They put two city council races into runoffs in the last election. The Brown candidates will lose their potency over time, however you can guarantee that this time they will get 10 percent in each of these respective races.
Will Tom Brown have gotten his way when this is all said and done? NO. He is being angry and spiteful instead of determined and thoughtful. He could be drafting another ballot initiative and gaining signatures in order to bolster his views. Instead he is picking fights he can not win in search of salvation that is not attainable.
I'm no "man of God," but I've heard a few people do a book report on the Bible and I can tell you that playing God, in any way, is frowned upon by God. Mr. Brown is trying to play God with the political future of his adversaries and it's not very Christian like. He does his flock better by taking a different - less anger-filled route in this matter.
Warning: Don't you gays get all uppity because I called out Brown on my blog here. Had you not made every aspect of you sexuality an "in your face issue," you would have never lost your benefits in the first place. But because you can't shut up about what you do in your own bedroom on your own time, you lost what you safely had. You were not initially discriminated against, but because you must scream to the world that you are gay and treated just like everyone else (even though you were treated like everyone else in this case), you awoke an intolerant giant and subsequently lost your benefits. Now you have a fight you weren't prepared to win and have created a party of individuals who seek to see your political demise where no one existed before.
Nobody wins. Well, I do... I escaped.
To make this all go away Council needs to vote this budget session to NOT pay 70% of dependent and spousal/domestic partner benefits. Issue is done. No recalls, no elections, no drama. But council doesn't have the balls to do it.
Posted by: so tired of this | July 19, 2011 at 03:31 PM
I'm tired of Brown, I'm tired of recalls, I'm tired of issues that split the community.I want this to go away so we can focus on something better.
Posted by: Go Away! | July 19, 2011 at 04:13 PM
Well then get in the game. Can't get anything done on the sidelines.
Posted by: Texaswoman | July 19, 2011 at 10:25 PM
David
In your face life style. Have you looked in the mirror. Who fills up the prisons. straights. Who walks off and leaves children with one parent. Straights. Who fails to pay their child support. Straights. Have you watched TV in the last 20 years. So whose lifestyle is being pushed?
Posted by: Texaswoman | July 19, 2011 at 10:29 PM
Dont pay the 70 percent. Well said. That is a budget cut Wilson would never bring up. She wants all the overpaid city workers to love her. Council would have to put it on the agenda. How about putting on the agenda to not offer city and county workers to vote where they work. Make them go to the fire stations just like us. I remember Beto saying he supported that, but like a true politician he never put it on the agenda. It doesn't matter what you say you believe if it never goes to a vote and you vote on it.
Posted by: Ghost of things said in the past | July 19, 2011 at 10:41 PM
Council is the only one that can direct Wilson to do away with the 70% the city pays for dependent coverage. They have 3-4 budget wrap up sessions in July and early August. They can ask for the information and they can vote to make it happen. But - 6000+ employees at the City vote and those votes can make the difference in some elections for some districts and/or Mayor. So council is loathe to make that kind of decision because it could piss off city employees and affect elections. I have zero sympathy for the expense the city employee would have to incur to pay 100% of their dependent coverage. Those of us that have never worked for government have had to face this issue every day we work. They need to get a taste of real world and quit hiding behind generous government benefits and Civil Services protection.
Posted by: so tired of this | July 20, 2011 at 11:06 AM
David,
You should pray for the salvation of the homosexual the same as you would for any other person in sin. However, this does not mean that you approve of their sin. I believe that members of this council has approved of their sin by voting to reinstate the gay benefits.
Posted by: Jesse | July 20, 2011 at 09:31 PM
Brilliant article! I laughed so hard my ribs hurt. Alas, tis true what you say. When will el chucoans wake up?
Posted by: abe peinado | July 21, 2011 at 12:13 AM
Jesse, I am praying for your lack of love and kindness. Maybe when you die, God will appear before you in drag, and THEN what will you do?
Posted by: Diana | July 22, 2011 at 10:43 PM
DIANA,
WHY ARE HOMOSEXUALS SO SENSITIVE? JUST BECAUSE YOU LIKE TO DRESS UP LIKE A FEMALE, IT'S YOUR LIFE, WE DONT CARE.
Posted by: Jesse | July 26, 2011 at 09:18 PM