The Recall is Going to be a Mess

If you read the paper this weekend or have a facebook account with at least one friend in El Paso, you know there's a new group in El Paso battling against Pastor Brown's recall attempt.  The movement, started by Jody Casey, is called "No Recall" and it's spreading like a digital wildfire among internet savvy circles in El Paso.  Is it going to work? Is it the end?  I don't know for sure, but here's what I think.

Casey is a smart, dedicated woman who won't quit easily. Oh, and did I mention that she's well connected?  She can do a lot quickly - and has.  She's really elbowed her way into a solid position within the political players west of Raynolds and she has done it very quickly.  Know her like I do and it's no surprise.  So what's the end game?

The  "no recall" crowd is earnestly trying to keep people from signing a petition, but should probably be organizing themselves as a political PAC that would support the recalled politicians.  Asking people not to do something is a hard political argument to make in this case.  I think she is preaching to the chior by asking people in her network to do something they weren't planning on doing in the first place.  However, she is brilliantly activating possible campaign donors who will open their wallets to support the recalled politicians.  So, all of this is not for naught (I've been waiting years to write that mangled sentence). 

But... And you knew there'd be one.

I hear there's a lot of immediate support for the Mayor (not so much Steve and Susie) and some of the names being thrown around as "supporters" are interesting... if not very rich.  I do think the support for the mayor in the recall will be different than the support he gets after the recall petition succeeds - if it succeeds.  We can all talk about what we are going to do if something happens in the future, but the real decisions will be made when it happens.  In this case we are talking about the mayor running for his seat one last time - to survive his final year. 

The big money guys and all of the anti-recall people love the mayor right now.  What happens if the recall is initiated and some very good - attractive candidates jump in the race because they see the mayor as a lame duck now and a lame duck again after he defends his seat against a recall?  I will tell you what happens - the mayor is going to get a good look at the underside of a bus.

Are the big money guys going to tell the guy they have in line to replace Cook not to get into the race early where he can win easily?  Is Casey's crowd going to deny someone within their crowd with political aspirations inspired by social justice a chance at being mayor?  The answer is "NO."  The human mind is simple - put your guy in the second you have the chance.

I think the key for groups like Casey's "No Recall" is to gear up for a campaign and there's no better way to do that than rallying your troops early around an issue like the recall petition.  If Casey is smart she's making a list and she will hit that list up for money to put into candidates running against Pastor Brown's candidates.

What is now, will not be then.  Remember that.

 

Comments

[Carl Starr]

I am not sure how you "keep someone from signing a petition" but Brown's campers should drop the Mayor recall and focus on the other two in time for Nov. The Mayor 6k signers will push it to May. Nov catches the wave, May may not. Albeit this issues has already lasted over two years.

[Jody]

Noting your good ideas David. We already have a PAC.

[David K]

Well Jody - I'd put up some info where people can help out by giving to the PAC!

I told you folks that she's smart. She's one step ahead of me already!

[Diana]

David, are you under the belief that if the petition is successful, candidates would then run against the people currently in office?

[Jody]

Diana, from what I understand, if the petition is successful then the candidates would be put up to ballot (in or out). If they are voted out then they can run again in the special election against anyone else who wants to run (see Brown cronies). Talk about costly! The estimates are on the upwards of $500K to taxpayers. And if you want to oppose the recall and contribute to the Citizens Against Recall Petition, or CARP, e-mail saynotorecall@gmail.com

[David K]

Diana,

Eventually an ousted politico would have to run for their seat again... or quit. But yes, if the petitions are succesful you'll be able to vote them out.

The mayor will be voted out for sure. The other two... maybe.

That doesn't mean i support the move to oust them, it just means I know how angry people are - for a variety fo reasons having nothing to do with the gay thing.

[Texaswoman]

The incumbents will win.

[Diana]

The way I read your post, I thought you were saying it was all one election. I know that IF they present enough VALID signatures, then the recalls would go to election. If past, then a new election would take place. Jody, you are correct. What a costly mess. David, I disagree. Enough people still respect the Mayor. Texaswoman, I don't think it will even get that far. LisaT, if you are reading this, my hat is off to you for your comments at last week's meeting. They were true and right on target. I loved when you told that idiot "poor man walking" Salvador Gomez off about his medals. The look on his face was priceless! You go, girl!

[Old Fart]

Very well said David K: "it just means I know how angry people are - for a variety of reasons having nothing to do with the gay thing."

[angry person in the 36]

if you watched darren hunt's interview with byrd and hooten you would see that hooten has more common sense than anyone on council. his simple solution was to quit paying the dependent coverage for city employees. that solves the problem. however, you will never see any of council bring this to a vote. byrd had her chance and said nothing. hooten also did not think manny was out of line or in questioning mcnabb's conflict of interest on this issue. what's funniest to me about all of this is that rachel quintana(not the brightest bulb on council) questioned whether the issue would hurt retirees and no one else said nothing. not ortega the lawyer or mcnabb. did they know and stayed quiet hoping retirees would turn out in large numbers(in other words rolling the dice with that group of people) or did they sit quiet knowing that if it passed to deny that they would have an excuse to repeal it or that a judge would do so for them ? i agree with david that mayor cook would lose. his plumber statement along with overturning this vote has done him in along with trying to extend his term by trying to chang the term limits law. byrd's district wont vote her out, but didnt byrd sue the petitioner's the last time ? i wonder if she will do it again. ortega may have more problems than you think. east side voters dont like votes overturned either, but i still dont think it will be enough for him to lose.

[so tired of this]

angry person: you are exactly right. why doesn't someone on council approach Brown and say "if we discontinue paying any portion of dependent and spouse coverage" will you drop your recall petition effort"? If he agrees - then done. The $300-500,000 recall and special elections will cost would probably equal the increased cost the city may incur in a premium charge because this change would mess with their stop loss coverage and the premium deductions for that.

[angry]

if the city were to go private insurance i believe there would be no stop loss charge. their pool would still be large enough for a great rate and i believe most would keep their insurance there because its no better anywhere else. if you read what hooten wrote to the times it sort of goes along with his theory that we are paying to much for benefits in the public sector. he alaso groups the private with it too considering unions.

http://www.elpasotimes.com/opinion/ci_18546633

[Wax On. Wax Off.]

I never hear a word Suzie Byrd says. Her giant, caterpillar eyebrows are too distracting.

[Diane]

Thank you, so tired of this. Very true. Angry seems to need counseling.

Wax on, Wax off, what a juvenile asinine remark. I do not care for Byrd but looks are irrelevant. Grow up!

[DingoDogg]

Exactamente. Es el pensamiento bueno. Le mantengo.
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DingoDogg