The November Elections Did Not Bode Well for Democrats

I was initially interested in my buddy Jaime's jubilant blog post HERE about his opinion on the tide turning for democrats after the early November elections across the country. 

He mentioned the collective bargaining bill failing in Ohio, but failed to mention that in that same state voters overwhelmingly rejected Obamacare with a resolution that would be put into the state's constitution. Neither outcome was surprising.  Although, the pretty much every single political handicapper in the nation took Ohio out of the "toss-up" column for 2012 and put it in the "firm republican" column.  Usually a state goes form "toss-up" to "leans republican" first.  Exit polling and a myriad of other votes on other issues showed both democrat and republican strategists all they need to know to put the state safely over into the "R" column. 

And while some democrats wanted to hail the terribly worded ballot initiative on when life starts in Mississippi as a victory for liberals, the reality was much different.  The state's extremely popular republican governor and nationwide Tea Party icon, Haley Barbour spent most of the day of the election and a good portion of the days before the election speaking against the ballot initiative because it was terribly written and would have caused all kinds of trouble for people it didn't intend to cause trouble for.  Joining the republican governor was just about every other elected republican in the state.  I don't see how the republicans lose when they get what they wanted - this ballot initiative to fail.  The back story the national media didn't tell you is how the damn thing got on the ballot in the first place and who was responsible for its terrible wording.

Just to stick with the south for a minute here... The day after the election the various democratic national entities switched their strategy from trying to hold seats in southern states, to trying to keep from losing so many they'd be without enough democrats to adequately represent the party in committees (state legislature)!  Let me just put that in perspective for you - most of the time they worry whether or not a state is "winnable" for their presidential candidate.  In the south the democrats have kissed off presidential hopes, senate hopes, and house hopes and are now worried about keeping seats at literally the county level.  To quote people in the business that I know intimately - "It has never been this bad before - EVER!"  You're looking at a situation where Arkansas is the only state with any semblance of democrat power left and even they are poised to see a complete republican takeover.

Elsewhere in American things only got worse for democrats with Virginia's senate swapping power. The idea of republicans even being within striking distance of a republican majority in the senate in 2010 was one that brought laughter.  Now Virginia isn't a swing state - it's red... blood red.  This is devastating to the president given democrats have always had a fighting chance in Virginia in years/decades/centuries past.  At a breakfast with a congressman from the western part of the state who barely beat a long-time democrat incumbent with the help of the Tea Party fervor last cycle, I learned that he went from "nervous" to "easy street" after the election results.  It seems that the election results yielded an extreme rift between voters and the democrat party - most notably the president. 

Jaime did mention some Arizona dust ups, but I all I can say to that is - it's Arizona... nobody can figure it out.  Janet Napalitano was governor of Arizona in 2009 - explain that to me.  You simply can not gauge the national political winds with an Arizona weather vane.

As for the Texas redistricting maps being rejected by the courts - completely expected and exactly as per plan by Texas Republicans.  They took the "we'll ask for forgiveness instead of permission" route and it ended up in court and they lost.  They now go back to the drawing... just go back to 2002 and see the exact script play out again.  It's a game - it comes down to waiting out the other side and when it comes down to "do or die" a plan will have to be accepted, just like it was last time.  Only thing is, Tom Delay won't be convicted of anything this time.

What Jaime and the democrats crying about the Texas map have to reckon with is the fact democrats in in Illinois are doing exactly what the republicans in Texas are doing.  So who's right?  It's a funny game. Although there are some very racial reasons for the lines in Illinois and nobody wants to talk about it, especially Hispanic democrats.

As a whole the democrats inside the beltway have severely downgraded their 2012 - 2016 outlook at every political level.  As one strategist put it to me over an impossibly expensive pint of something they call a "craft brew" here in DC - "We kicked the only two successful democrats of the last 25 years to the curb in favor a guy who was a state senator ten minutes ago.  We're getting everything we deserve and a little more."

And just so you know - democrats have quietly revised forecasts backwards in the following states MO, MT, CA (I know!), MA, MN, FL, NC, TN and NV.   And those are the ones I know of through my contacts.  There's no telling what they think of OR, AR and NM these days. 

Comments

[eric]

Yep we all know what happens when ballot initiative's are written poorly.