Reyes is out and O'Rourke is in. We're going to dwell on this for about another 15 minutes and then we're going to move on. The formula for beating the old guard has been in place since 2004. To see another one fall to a Shapleigh Camper is no surprise at all. It's actually par for the course.
The Republican crossover votes added with about a thousand or so new voters is what put O'Rourke over the top (we're going to call him "Beto" from now on because it's easier to type). If you do the math using the El Paso Times' article over the weekend it pretty much works out that way. I'm sure someone out there will crunch the voter lists next week and find that there were roughly 2,500 crossover voters and around 800 to 1000 new voters - or people who only vote every four years.
There are several reasons to crossover and we can get into those later, but in the end it was the difference no matter what their aim was.
The major problem Reyes had was that he was facing what the Clinton's faced in 2008 - party fatigue. People were tired of his machine. More pointedly - they were tired of his unofficial enforcers running over everyone in the party. Most of you know exactly who I'm talking about and exactly what kinds of behavior I'm talking about. These enforcers worked without the direct knowledge of the congressman even though they used their connection to him to get what they wanted. I think if Reyes knew everything that was going on using his status as the whip, he'd be disgusted.
Did Congressman Reyes know anything about the Aliviane contract? NOPE. Did his staff, friends and family know? YEP. Was his status used to get this thing done without his knowledge or consent? YEP.
That's just the tip of the iceberg. How many people were told not to run for office or not to support the candidate of their choice in a democratic primary? How many people were told to "sit down and shut up" by his enforcers over the years? From what I hear - enough people to deliver the primary election to another democrat.
Those Republican crossovers and new voters don't mean a thing if you have the support of you local party's core. Obviously Reyes lost a lot of that support and people who supported him the past decided to go another direction. Maybe they just wanted to see what life would be like under someone else's thumb. After all, who ever holds the congressional seat, runs the party.
Reyes didn't help himself by not publicly decrying Gandara's indictment for drug trafficking. Lots of voters noticed he didn't want to run to the podium to call the guy a scumbag, which is what he should have done. Reyes lost votes among those who had hoped the Gandara's charm had finally completely disappeared and that he would be the person to confirm it.
Also not helping was Norma Chavez's involvement on his behalf. Everything she touches turns to shit. Many people in the party were unsure of which way to go when Beto first go in the race. When Norma chose a side and decided to treat it with her special brand of nastiness, she sent all the party undecideds to Beto's camp. I can't tell you how many people I received emails from saying they made their decision to volunteer or vote for Beto based on Norma's decision to get involved. The name calling and generally offensive angry outbursts by Norma directed to anyone not on her team solidified their decision. Getting rid of Reyes all of sudden became a way to finally get rid of Norma.
Norma wasn't the only nasty party insider whose ultimate demise was tied to the ousting of Reyes, but she was one of the big ones. Reyes became a package deal that was too good not to vote against and it's his fault for not separating himself from those people.
The final problem was simply time. He'd been there a long time and it's bound to make voters antsy. For years Reyes had no real contest and he got a little used to it and little soft. Had Morris Pittle not been hired, Reyes would have just puttered along and lost by 25 points. Even with Morris the "fire in the belly" didn't come through in many aspects of the campaign. It's hard to get excited when for so many years it took literally nothing to keep you on top and I think that voters saw that.
Beto did a good job with the young folks. They are a group first rallied by Jay Kleberg, then reinvigorated by Jody Casey with the "No Recall" effort and finally successful with Beto. If I were Beto, I'd be calling both Casey and Kleberg to thank them for priming the pump with this group. I'm sure he will. I predict this group isn't done deciding elections just yet. Do watch them, they have finally proven that they will bite you.
The negative campaigning really didn't help or hurt anyone. In El Paso negative campaigning is a sign of strength and it works very well. Show me one good example of a race where negative campaigning took the clear winner out of contention. You can't. In El Paso you people look up to the bully, not the scholar. Your elections are a testament to that. Reyes probably wouldn't have been within ten points if he didn't go negative. He would have been seen as weak if he didn't.
And those are the high points. Gotta run.
Give some props to the Coronado students that you bagged on. They were almost right on the money with their numbers.
Posted by: jux | May 30, 2012 at 12:30 PM
Don't think repub crossovers were there in the quantity u think. The drug legalization is a vote killer for repubs. If Beto had come out pro-life and second amendment...possibly. Probably mostly new voters and independents. 08 elections set the tone for this one with new voters.
Posted by: Tom Ingle | May 30, 2012 at 01:28 PM
So no need to ever hire a professional pollster again in El Paso! CHS saves the day - better than Ruel Group at polling! OMG - quit school CHS students - start your own polling company! Yeah - some kudos to CHS kids giving up 2 Saturday's of their busy life. I trust Ruel Group more than I would high school or college kids. Had Ruel Group or any other professional polling firm been given the same opportunity bet they would have come up with the exact same results. But if EPT can get it for free - what choice do you think they will make?
Posted by: 100% voter | May 30, 2012 at 04:07 PM
It was Congressman Reyes' race to lose. His people just didn't work for it. And as far as Beto is concerned, the saying is that people go to Washington to do good and they stay to do well. Only time will tell.
Posted by: t busch | May 30, 2012 at 04:10 PM
100%, change your handle to 100% asshole.
Those kids did something you never would have at their age.
And when faced with a 'suck it up' moment because your horse lost, you act like a monkey in a cage and throw shit at a bunch of kids instead of looking askance at your crappy candidate and his crappy showing at the polls.
For god's sake, crawl back into your hole o'ass and lick your wounds in private.
The rest of us have grown up things to talk about.
Posted by: been in the CV for 15 years | May 30, 2012 at 04:51 PM
Pretty sure I know who 100% voter is and they are a Beto fan. I think they were making light of the fact that the Times is cheap and touted that.
I did say from the very beginning that since it was going to be a close race their numbers would be appear correct even if they didn't do things as the professionals do. Good for them - but in a wider race they would have gotten it wrong. Believe it or not - tight races are the easiest to get right even when you do things wrong.
Posted by: David K | May 30, 2012 at 05:03 PM
CV - I am a 100% Beto supporter! So eat your words. I went to high school in the wild days of the 60s and 70s when we were having fun with free love, drugs and peace rallies. We didn't care about elections - that was so "establishment".
Posted by: 100% voter | May 30, 2012 at 05:30 PM
Looking forward, it is now a very interesting situation for this 83% Mexican-American community where the Democrat political establishment now must decide to either back the silver spooned rich white guy Democrat or the accomplished Latina Republican. Will the Reyes old base of supporters crossover to deny Robert O'Rourke? Will the various factions of El Paso Democrat party groups fall in line? Will the state and national Republican party recognize an opportunity and devote resources to capture a long Democrat seat? Will the local old guard Republicans step up or will O'Rourkes father in law, Bill Sanders, keep them in line? Are we going to have an honest debate on liberal vs conservative ideas and which one actually works for the people? The next few months will be a civics lesson! Too bad we don't have an honest and competent newspaper. What a delimma for Jaima the blogger and the KHRO radical Mexicans who push ethnicity at every turn. White Male Democrat or Mexican-American Female Republican? What now?
Posted by: Gossip Girl | May 31, 2012 at 11:09 AM
That would be hilarious Gossip Girl if the Reyes voter turned around and voted for Carrasco. The Reyes votes plus the Republican total vote plus those anti Beto or Reyes votes(Jerome votes) would give Carrasco a win by 2 Grand plus. The Deadbeat is already crying about it on his blog and saying the same ole get behind Beto and pull the ole Demo switch. I dont think it could be pulled off because i dont think its even in Norma Chavez's or Strelz's blood to vote for a Republican, but it sure would be funny if that happened. Bill Sanders would probably have a heart attack.
Posted by: Beto & Reyes Hater | May 31, 2012 at 11:38 AM
I normally vote Republican and there is no way in hell I would vote for Carrasco. She is just too weird for me. But if the hispanic democrats don't vote straight ticket there is a chance Carrasco could win. Female Hispanics most always vote for female hispanic candidates. Female Hispanics vote in greater numbers than male hispanics. Gossip Girl asked a lot of good questions. Should be interesting in November.
Posted by: go beto | May 31, 2012 at 12:14 PM
Could never vote for Beto. Could never vote for a person's whose political heroes are Eliot and Ray Caballero. Im not Republican, but Carrasco has my vote.
Posted by: Beto & Reyes Hater | May 31, 2012 at 01:33 PM
well there is always the libertarian candidate to vote for.
Posted by: go beto | May 31, 2012 at 01:57 PM
Great observations. Kudos to Gossip Girl. @ go Beto, by your logic, Mexican chicks are already stupid, they won't be able to distinguish between "Beto" and "Carrasco." But David, is there anything in El Paso that doesn't have Norma's powerful charm-- or "mano negra" as the case might be? I think your momma or Mexican maid read you too many bogey man stories. And basing your assertion on "your friends" who seem to e-mail you all the time, would earn you an F from that T-bird teacher who graded the teenagers' polling homework. (by the way, Reyes country here all the way... voting for Carrasco; in fact, just sent her $100 today since it was pay day).
Posted by: NoBeto | May 31, 2012 at 08:58 PM
And I wouldn't pay much credence to what the deadbeat blogger guy has to say. The only ones who put value into his blithering, grammatically abhorent idiocies are Darren Hunt, Bobbie Boy Moore and the EP Dumbocrats.
Posted by: NoBeto | May 31, 2012 at 08:59 PM
I'm surprized that pompous-assed Reyes lasted this long, considering that several years ago he said in regards to supporting democrats, 'El Paso needs to vote democrat in larger numbers and to give more money to the party.' I don't need some jackball telling me who to vote for or even to vote. And I sure as hell don't need anyone telling me to give them money.
Congratulations needs to go out to Norma Chavez for batting an "impressive" 8 out of 18 picks. Way to remind everyone how irrelevant and foolish you continue to be. Given the fact that you're ALMOST as intelligent as a quarter being flipped, means that I've slightly underestimated her. I can't decide what makes her even more ridiculous: The fact that she recently implied that Obama's policies are fiscally sound, or that she continues to write on her blog racially-chipped garbage such as, 'A white guy with a brown nickname...a brown guy with a white nickname.' She truly is sick.
Finally, I found it disturbing that Reyes never mentioned what he plans on doing for E P if he gets re elected, or that Beto twice mentioned on his election website that he believes in term limits, but has yet to be specific as to the # of terms/years an official should be re elected. Ok, I can sense that I've already given more intelligence that this group can handle, so I'm shutting it down...for now.
Posted by: WAYtoSMARTforTHIScrowd | June 01, 2012 at 02:34 AM
It allows the bacteria to produce human growth hormone.
. . Human growth hormone (HGH) is medically used to
treat dwarfism. Before bacteria made HGH, animal growth hormones
were used, but there were problems including expense.
. . Research scientists at Stanford and the University of California at San Francisco inserted the HGH gene into bacteria to see if the
hormone could be harvested directly. It could be.
This was the first commercial product of Genentech, the biotech company.
. . The next product from the company was human insulin made by bacteria.
Before recombinant DNA, insulin was taken from cows and sheep in the
slaughter houses. But these animals did not produce human insulin.
When the human insulin was produced by bacteria, it was
much more effective and safer.
Posted by: read more | June 01, 2012 at 11:26 AM
Well then, that settles it! The next election, I'm voting for bacteria. (the lesser of two evils)
Posted by: WAYtoSMARTforTHIScrowd | June 01, 2012 at 11:39 AM
WaytoSmart, Beto's term limits comment reminded me of when he said that their shouldn't be voting booths at churches and that city employees and county employees shouldn't be able to vote where they work. In other words, everyone would all be the same and have to go to the fire stations to vote. Thing is he never put it on the agenda. Why ? Same thing with this term limits bull. As long as he is in office he wont bring the issue up. His first actions will be to try and get a veteran's hospital so he can get the military vote and then ask for the bridge at Jarbrough so he can get daddy in law's money again in 2 years. Norma would find out real quick whether she is relevant or not if she could swing the Reyes vote to Carrasco. I don't think she can which would mean she isn't relevant. Oh, and I'm voting for the White Chick with the Mexican last name instead of the White Irish boy with the name the illegal maid probably gave him.
Posted by: Will | June 01, 2012 at 11:59 AM
I believe the Texas Legislature is the body that would impose term limits on U.S. House of Representatives from Texas and U.S.Senate representatives from Texas. The legislation does not originate in DC. So if we are all serious about term limits for our federal reps then start the process in the Texas Legislature in 2013. Bet know one will do it - we all talk but we do not act. Wonder if the El Paso delegation will have guts enough to bring the subject up. Probably not - might affect them and the number of terms they could serve. Technically the Primary vote Tuesday was a "term limit" for Reyes.
Posted by: 100% voter | June 01, 2012 at 12:13 PM
I decided to root for Beto after he stated he would consider a voluntary decrease in pay if elected. Reyes never answered our questions this entire campaign season.
It is going to be easier for the Dems to blame Republicans for this loss instead of looking within at their immature pettiness and rude behavior. Reyes did not separate his ties to Corruption, did not attend enough public forums and never answered direct policy questions. Bringing up the DWI was a stupid decision. Most of us who have made mistakes saw it as a judgmental holier than thou statement by the Reyes camp.
I heard many Dems say that the local Ron Paul movement was for nothing even though 1000 diverse people showed up to see him despite no promise of mariachis, fajitas, or cash prizes. These very people turned up for Beto. Many felt Romney is the presumptive nominee and the local Republican convention had already selected a slate which includes Paul supporters. Therefore, the best thing was to vote to make a change at the local level.
The local Democratic Party has no chance of courting these independent voters. They are not issue based. They are not friendly or welcoming. Their victimization politics of the world owes me because I am brown and you should forgive other brown people when they break the law by crossing the border illegally are not appealing. Their Raza cries and El Pauso pronunciations are cheesy.
The Independent vote is going to take over and it is going to be every candidate for themselves. Fantastic!
Posted by: Victoria Nevarez | June 01, 2012 at 03:49 PM
I agree Victoria. Bringing up the DWI and Susie spanking was stupid. Now If he had brought up Beto pissing on our vote on the domestic partner issue more often that might have helped him. The gay community was voting for Beto anyway, but many El Pasoans might have remembered that Beto helped overturn the vote and thus helped cause the recall. As a matter of fact, if his term wouldn't have been up his name would have been on the recall list with Susie, Steve, and Cook. El Pasoans don't like their votes overturned. No matter what.
Posted by: Will | June 01, 2012 at 04:16 PM
I'm reluctantly against term limits because a more effective way of getting a better government is to encourage people to start getting informed (for a change) before they vote. Sorry for the crazy talk. My bad. There is some good news. I've had an indepth conversation with "bacteria", and it agreed that I should be its campaign manager for the '14 election. Here's some campaign slogans I'm already considering: "If you give me chance, I guarantee I'll grow on you!" "Hey, at least I'm not cancer." And, "I have no problem with anyone putting me under a microscope, literally." However, I have a feeling that my candidate will run anything BUT a clean campaign.
Posted by: WAYtooSMARTforTHIScrowd | June 01, 2012 at 04:17 PM
Victoria Nevarez, if you find an issue or an ideology floating around, hang on to it. Your ability to speak out of both sides of your mouth-- usually cringe-worthy idiocies betrays you as a classic El Paso ignoramus who hopes to impress the small circle of in-bred friends that she's worldly. Do you even know Dr. Paul is from Texas. There is a big world outside of El Paso and its citizens are not anywhere close as full of shit as you are.
Posted by: ElPasoProdigy | June 01, 2012 at 05:38 PM
How did you know my friends are in-bred? Stalker!
Posted by: Victoria Nevarez | June 01, 2012 at 06:08 PM
If Romney asked Paul to be his running mate I believe it would help. It would get those Perot type voters that think the Government spends way to much and those independents that realize Obama has spent use into even more debt than Bush. I don't think The elite "Repubicans" would let it happen though because of their stupid ego's. I hate to say it, but the Dems are thinking that way. They are looking at dumping Biden for Hillary because they think that might get the independent vote. They know Obama is gonna need help and Hillary might help in the same way that Paul would help Romney.
Prodigy, Victoria's friends couldn't be any more inbred than anyone in East Texass, but I bet you sure do have a purty mouth.
Posted by: William | June 01, 2012 at 06:28 PM
my mouth is just lovely Will. Wanna kiss it? But yes, a business mogul and a free-markets libertarian who's against civil rights? match made in heaven!Don't think it will happen. Romney will annoint token boy Rubio or Martinez (as in Susana la tejana). All those Hispanic chicks will vote for Martinez because of her name or Rubio because he's hot.
Posted by: ElPasoProdigy | June 01, 2012 at 07:19 PM
victoria is not an idiot. she's willing to use her real name to express her views. I deeply respect her for that and you should too.
Posted by: David K | June 01, 2012 at 08:15 PM
You don't know Victoria Nevarez.
Posted by: ElPasoProdigy | June 02, 2012 at 01:55 AM
No Beto = Norma worthless loser Chavez... Her nicknamiming mamby pamby makes me want to puke.. Especially when she refers to a cup of coffee as "cafecito".... While speaking English... Norma needs to get a life..put a "forkesito" in her her.. She's done...esito!!
Posted by: Bowie Bear | June 02, 2012 at 04:39 AM
David,
There is already a group of important Democrats who are publicly stating their support for Carrasco.
If you are already selected as a delegate to the State Convention for your political party can your status be placed in Jeopardy if you are actively donating, volunteering and working for a candidate of the opposite party?
For example, the El Paso GOP told the delegates who are Ron Paul supporters that it is okay if they work for him and advocate for him because he is still currently a Presidential nominee for the Republican Party. But they are expected to follow the state's decision and back Romney once an official decision is made. I can't imagine they would be ok if all of a sudden delegates started working for a Democrat in any race. Would the local Dems have the same rules?
Just wondering.
Posted by: Victoria Nevarez | June 02, 2012 at 01:48 PM
Norma Chavez is still ranting about Beto's win, blaming it on Repubicans. Democrats voted for Beto, against Reyes. She is insulting every Democrat who voted for Beto, as though they have no right to decide for themselves. Her ego is unbelievable. She thinks she is the QUEEN of her party and that all Democrats MUST obey her.
There will always be some crossover voting, as it should be. Voters have the right to vote for whomever they want and crossover goes both ways. 70% of Americans are in the middle of the far left and the far right. We can think and decide for ourselves about every race and every candidate. Party before country people like Norma have joined a cult for life and thinking is not allowed.
Posted by: SouthSideVoter | June 03, 2012 at 03:18 PM
Just a hunch that I get from hearing her tone on the radio, but I believe that Norma will run against Beto if he wins in Nov.
Mark your calendar, by Aug 2013 she will declare her candidacy for the 2014 primary.
Posted by: Mike Armstead | June 03, 2012 at 11:13 PM
P.S. I happily crossed over and voted Democrat! Woo hoo!
Posted by: Mike Armstead | June 03, 2012 at 11:15 PM
I happily crossed over & voted Democrat. Convinced a couple other people who were tired of Reyes to do the same. Hopefully he has embarrassed El Paso for the last time!
Posted by: Ken | June 04, 2012 at 01:27 PM
norma cannot win county wide.
Posted by: susie | June 04, 2012 at 06:05 PM
What's more pathetic: The two Presidental Dancing Bears not being able to 'git er done', the 11th hour (5/25) hatchet-job that kvia tried to pull on Beto by reporting that allegedly "Billy Sanders" called "someone" from the station asking them to vote for Beto and also implying that Beto and/or his volunteers have some magical list of just E P republicans and that they called people from this list to vote for him - given the fact that Beto, his volunteers, or anyone from the public has never claimed that they told, or were told by anyone to vote for him if they aren't a democrat is more than just shotty reporting from that "news" organization known as kvia. Or how about nut-job Norma once again showing off her racist garbage by proudly displaying the 'aztlan' symbol on her blog. One can realistically conclude that she must be embracing the notion that her "people" should conquer the southwest because it's the 'fair and just' thing to do. Fortunately and not surprisingly, a vast majority of hispanics don't embrace this sick, twisted, racially-charged and outdated screwy crap. At this point, Norma couldn't get elected to assistant dog-catcher in precinct # 952.
Posted by: WAYtooSMARTforTHIScrowd | June 04, 2012 at 07:39 PM
PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT:
Remember boys and girls. Friends don't let friends drink and opine on blogs. Take the keyboard, and encourage them to sleep it off.
Posted by: WAYtooSMARTforTHIScrowd | June 10, 2012 at 02:27 PM
David as usual you are right to a point! Shows that the arrogance of some candidates does not do so well, sometimes. It was reyes time to go.
Posted by: Lupe | October 13, 2012 at 10:25 PM