Some Mayor's Race Commentary from a friend

The text below was sent to me and I thought I'd share it.

 

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Leeser, who has been rumored to be interested in the job for the last 6-8 years picked a lousy time to jump in the race. The only thing his candidacy does is make it easier for Ortega to win without a run-off.

Why?

Because of the field of candidates, only Ortega has an identifiable base of support. There is the universe of people who love Ortega and the universe of people who hate Ortega. Not a single candidate that is running is someone who bites in to Ortega's support. All the candidates can do is touch on the "anybody but Steve" sentiment.

 

 

Another reason this helps Ortega is the fact that there is not a seasoned ground campaigner in the bunch. They will all try to campaign by going to forums and various meetings and maybe make a feeble attempt at a media buy. 

Except Leeser, he'll will make it rain like a GI at Foxy's on the 1st of the month with the media buys. But it won't matter. He's starting way too late. And who is going to run his campaign? The talent is already spoken for, Ortega has Forma and Haddad has Morris. The incompetent Reyes people once again backed the wrong horse and are working with Lopez, who is now even more irrelevant than he was before. Only now he will get even less money. 

I know people will think that the more people in the race the more likely there will be a run-off. Not necessarily if they all split the anti-Steve vote. Unless someone is able to bite in to Ortega's base (and the only way you effectively do that is on the ground) then its not gonna happen. There is just enough time to mount a targeted ground game to force a run-off. But it has to be a disciplined candidate who will be able to cover about 225 doors a day. 

Leeser's name ID isn't what he thinks it is. He would have to make the connection to people that "he's such a good boy" and do it in a way that doesn't compromise his integrity as a candidate.

He probably pissed everyone else off in the race because he makes getting money that much harder for them. It could be devastating if he spends a shit load of money the wrong way and there's still no run-off. 

Businessmen are notoriously reluctant to spend their own money in a campaign (that's why they stay rich), so his financial bark might end up being worse than his bite.

Then there's the Sun Bowl implications. I'm not sure how that's gonna play out but any smart campaign will find a way to use it somehow. 

 

Comments

[Josie Bustos]

If Leeser wins, they will have to have an office for his mamma right next to him.

[puzzeled]

You think Morris (for Haddad) is a plus? Isn't this the guy who thinks a beer belly and baggy jeans are for dress up? And isn't this the guy who sued the city? Sorry, but if Lesser gets an established agency like Wingo, he'll be way ahead of Haddad.

[D'OH!]

One of the more interesting last minute candidates was Vivian Rojas jumping into the race for District 7. She was Luther Jones and Anthony Cobos's girl while she was on council, and before that, she was Jaime O. Perez and Theresa Caballero's girl as a candidate. Why she would put herself out in the open and be exposed demonstrates her arrogance (or her belief that people don't have a memory).

[Josie Bustos]

I agree, D'OH! Not sure what she is thinking or why she thinks she has a chance in hell to win. Maybe she just likes attention and wants to be in the limelight for even a short time.

[Gonzo]

I was shocked but not really surprised to see the list of candidates for our next mayor on the front page. What shocked me is how the El Paso Times omitted Steve Ortega. As a proud El Paso resident I have been watching closely as our city cleans up its act. We are weeding out the corruption. Is the El Paso Times favoring one candidate over others because of advertising dollars spent in their paper? I certainly hope this isn't more of the business as usual the El Paso Times says it wants to root out but shows it might not be serious about. What's the deal?
I intend to vote in the mayoral election. I don't know who I will vote for. I want my vote to count. El Paso Times-Please do the right thing.

[Rotten Peppers]

I met Vivian 10 years ago. If you recall she ran in, I think 2003, against the TIFs around the medical complex to save her mom's home, or so she thought. It made national news as she was a complete political amateur. She was unfamiliar with business and CC protocols and that handicapped her effectiveness and lost her the next race by just a few votes. But as far as I could tell,she was honest and well-meaning, more than can be said for some. I wish her well and am glad to see her back in the fray.

[David K]

puzzled,

wow, I just saw this. I have full confidence that you wouldn't utter a word of that in Morris' presence. Your confidence is routed in your anonymity. Thus, you are a coward.

[What a joke]

Rotten Peppers,

On Vivian Rojas being honest, I beg to differ. Those of us who had to deal with city council in those days knew she would do the bidding of Anthony Cobos and Luther Jones, even when it was demonstrated to her that they were leading her down the right path. Either she was too stupid to understand or she was willing to participate with them in corruption. Either scenario is bad, bad, bad for El Paso.

[What a joke]

not "right path", but WRONG path. Apologies for the error.

[dot]

Morris is an ass and I have said it to his face - but somehow he's been a successful ass. Which says more about the pathetic state of our local advertising industry than it does about his talent.

What I'm curious about is something I saw in the footage of Leeser's announcement.... which was the presence of two key local money people and at least one key person with the law enforcement faction. None of those were faces I expected to see standing beside a business candidate, and I can't think of a race I've seen those 3 lose.

That's just my 2 bits from the cheap seats.

[Lslsls]

I think Morris Pittle is an extremely talented individual - you may not like his looks and sometimes he has issues with delivering the product - but he is very talented. I just don't know if Gus Haddad will give him free reign.

I keep remembering the commercial he did in the Margo v Shapleigh race in 2006 - the brilliant one with the little kids in big chairs asking what an "agenda" was and things like that - it was brilliant and different.

It would be so nice to have cutting edge and different campaign ads - not the usual boring crap with the family, park scenes and multi-cultural pictures of El Pasoans.

[EL]

Morris is a genius wrapped in a paradigm inside a renaissance man.

[dot]

I don't just look at politicals but total body of work. Don't confuse crude with cutting edge; although I will grant that much of today's national advertising industry does target baser behavior. Which says more about an advertising culture that treats their audience like teenage boys telling flatulence jokes.