The text below was sent to me and I thought I'd share it.
Leeser, who has been rumored to be interested in the job for the last 6-8 years picked a lousy time to jump in the race. The only thing his candidacy does is make it easier for Ortega to win without a run-off.
Because of the field of candidates, only Ortega has an identifiable base of support. There is the universe of people who love Ortega and the universe of people who hate Ortega. Not a single candidate that is running is someone who bites in to Ortega's support. All the candidates can do is touch on the "anybody but Steve" sentiment.
Another reason this helps Ortega is the fact that there is not a seasoned ground campaigner in the bunch. They will all try to campaign by going to forums and various meetings and maybe make a feeble attempt at a media buy.
Except Leeser, he'll will make it rain like a GI at Foxy's on the 1st of the month with the media buys. But it won't matter. He's starting way too late. And who is going to run his campaign? The talent is already spoken for, Ortega has Forma and Haddad has Morris. The incompetent Reyes people once again backed the wrong horse and are working with Lopez, who is now even more irrelevant than he was before. Only now he will get even less money.
I know people will think that the more people in the race the more likely there will be a run-off. Not necessarily if they all split the anti-Steve vote. Unless someone is able to bite in to Ortega's base (and the only way you effectively do that is on the ground) then its not gonna happen. There is just enough time to mount a targeted ground game to force a run-off. But it has to be a disciplined candidate who will be able to cover about 225 doors a day.
Leeser's name ID isn't what he thinks it is. He would have to make the connection to people that "he's such a good boy" and do it in a way that doesn't compromise his integrity as a candidate.
He probably pissed everyone else off in the race because he makes getting money that much harder for them. It could be devastating if he spends a shit load of money the wrong way and there's still no run-off.
Businessmen are notoriously reluctant to spend their own money in a campaign (that's why they stay rich), so his financial bark might end up being worse than his bite.