Party primaries are ideally just beauty contests. You may not know this, but each party has a federal and state platform and their candidates are pledged to carry that platform in its entirety. And if that's the case, there's no policy differences between one Republican running for a house seat and another Republican running for a house seat (same for Democrats). It should come down to picking which one will do better against the Democrat in the race... which one looks better (metaphorically) in the swimsuit part of the contest and answered "world peace" more convincingly.
Knowing that fact makes me wonder why so many folks in El Paso think the Dori vs. Vero fight is going to come down to issues. I'm wondering what issues we're talking about here.
The border wall? Already built. Even if you tried to put some kind of open borders immigration show on for voters, your appeal won't be that large. Let's face it, El Paso has had a border wall for a very long time now. Nobody really cares. Sure, we've had 30 people show up to protest immigration policies of the President recently, but to be honest - those 30 people show up to every protest on every issue (environment, human rights, plant rights, Chico Tacos cheese, ballparks, parking, knocking down empty buildings etc. et al.). I see more rich white people marching in Washington against the border wall than I will ever see anyone of any color marching in El Paso. It is simply a non-issue. Mainly because 99 percent of the Latino population in El Paso are born and raised American - and damn proud of it. Many of them are fourth and fifth generation Americans. Good luck trying to convince them that the existing wall is some kind of problem for them.
Anywho...
Once you get past that you have the whole "who's representative of the community?" question. I have seen much talk about how only someone who is an absolute mirror of the population can get elected. And then I look and see that our current congressman (who I very much like) is a rich white guy educated at an elite East coast school who likes punk rock music. He beat a an incumbent Latino man who grew up on a farm in the valley, proudly served his country in Vietnam in a combat role, never went to a four year institution, speaks Spanish... you get it - he's Mr. El Paso.
Please tell me again how you have to be "representative of the community" in order to win? Have you seen our last three mayors?
Winning a Democratic primary in El Paso is all about wooing the heads of the local factions - the Patron System the Texas border is so famous for. You don't have to earn every single vote one at a time. Instead, you earn them via the one guy/girl who tells everyone else how they are voting. The only reason O'Rourke beat Reyes was because Reyes' "insiders" became abusive to the Patrons that were supporters of his. They used his name to wreak havoc on others and in the end brought their boss down.
Something tells me that Vero is well aware of this and has maintained those relationships. It's unclear if Byrd has the ability to navigate those channels with her fiery temper and her persistent pressure on those who don't agree quickly enough with her side of the issue/argument.
Dori will have to buy her way into these groups. There's a whole dance a candidate must do to ingratiate themselves with El Paso democratic voters. Free beer and food go a long way... a lot further than some statement about a wall that's already been built. Vero's long list of enemies will help facilitate this process/parties.
A role will be had for the crossover Republican voter who sees Vero as way too liberal. Dori will be a democrat, but she likely won't be as far to the left as Vero. If Republicans were smart, they'd pick the lesser of two evils... but they are not, so they won't. No need to even dream of that.
Your thoughts?
The election to replace O'Rourke will be 2018, a midterm year. Voter turnout is low everywhere. The more affluent voters will support Fenenbock. The less affluent will support Escobar. More affluent voters turn out for midterm elections. As you explain well, Issues are not the question. The result will be determined by how many voters Escobar and the Democrat political bosses can transport to the poles. But, there may an independent candidate. What will that do to the dynamic?
Posted by: abandon hope | July 14, 2017 at 09:42 AM
If an independent, third party or a more qualified candidate that is a Dem or Rep, the dynamic would be that we would have real choice. Not the usual lesser of two evils.
Posted by: Fingers crossed | July 14, 2017 at 10:44 AM
Wouldn't it be nice if politicos just ran for office to serve and not as a springboard to a larger office?
Posted by: Jerryk | July 14, 2017 at 12:03 PM
Unless she announces like now, Vero's money and time problem will get worse.
Fenenbock has money. Money respects money.
She has time to build up her name ID and not worry about having to go negative on anyone for a while.
Vero is gonna probably have to hit up Beto's for cash for her race.
Love,
Max
Posted by: Max Powers | July 14, 2017 at 12:19 PM
Hold on Max, Jaime stated its not about the amount of money raised. Only that Dori is buying the seat. Double talk ?
Wasn't it stated that Escoba and Bird were in DC with a "tin cup" ? Which one was the organ grinder and which one was the monkey ? I suspect she is worried and used the sales pitch that the congressional seat has to remain as a "Juarez representation" position.
If Escoba really felt she has a chance she should be raising money in the district or her other constituency Juarez.
Btw, I'm no fan of Dor either. That's another issue that needs a lot more scrunity about her junkets with school money.
Let's find out why Bird was playing hooky on an important education vote day. Did she provide an excused absence note to the board ?
Posted by: What a circus ! | July 14, 2017 at 01:18 PM
The Border Wall protestors and the sanctuary city protesters are the same ones. They're probably paid. I see them downtown by the courthouse and they have matching t-shirts and carry similar signs...not the homemade type. I think they dig these people out of the unemployment lines and give them a stipend to stand in the sun. Can't figure out how Beto can justify "open borders" and oppose the fence we have. El Paso's burglary rate dropped with that fence.
Posted by: wondering | July 15, 2017 at 12:48 AM
Wow. Beto is an almost talented congressman that's now endeavoring to become an even less talented senator. Ms. Escobar was a community scholar and has Shapleigh's blessings despite having no descernable skills. Dori is a hysterical egomaniacal opportunist. She recently gave the most embarrassing TED talk I have ever witnessed. Cringeworthy. I love this town.
Posted by: Beto Moore | July 15, 2017 at 04:03 PM
Gosh, Beto. Thanks for putting out the word on Fenenboch's TED talk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1FAlzhcnBc
I really liked it. Too bad Escobar can't talk convencingly about anything she has done except how she sold us a Childrens Hospital and raised our taxes.
By the way, love your garage sale ads and obituaries.
Posted by: abandon hope | July 15, 2017 at 09:03 PM
I rarely use the "C" word. But hey, if it walks like a duck.
Posted by: Beto Moore | July 16, 2017 at 02:36 PM
David, NOTICED your parents donated a chunk of money to Dori according to the Times. Good for them. Anything is better than Escobyrdshit. I see all the west side Jewish and Arab money donated to her too which is expected, however, the rag doesn't show if the big money donated( Foster,Hunt,Sanders, and Cardwell). Was this left out on purpose or are they waiting to donate at the last minute ? Your thoughts. Also, Jud Burgess made a stupid comment in the rag about no Latino's on the list. Judd, Maria Teran ? And don't tell me you meant Latino as in males only.
Posted by: your thoughts ? | July 17, 2017 at 04:48 PM
your thoughts,
Yes, I will get to all that. My parents did give and it makes my life a little uncomfortable... I'll explain later.
David K
Posted by: David k | July 17, 2017 at 06:24 PM