It's odd to me that those with political crystal balls aren't really taking into consideration the new reality that is Texas voting - no more straight ticket options. This is going to be a big deal going forward for folks in non-partisan races and especially judge races... or pretty much anybody down the ballot. Strategies are going to have to change and nobody seems to want to talk about it.
In 2018 Beto shocked the world by getting way closer to beating Senator Ted Cruz than anyone had ever predicted. The "Beto effect" - as some Texas political consultants are calling it - was much more than his rockstar status that made him a 2020 presidential candidate. Beto's appeal brought a ton of voters out the polls who, for the last time, touched, punched or pulled a lever that let them vote for all the Democrats on the ballot at once. Republicans had the same option, but chose to do so slightly less frequently. Republicans down the ballot in what was considered "safe" districts went down in flames. The "Beto effect" on the lower portion of the ballot in Texas was much more of an accomplishment for Democrats than anything else Beto ever did.
The funny thing is that the Texas Democratic party is a bit of a mess. I can't blame them though - it's been a rough couple of decades. When the national Democratic party went from helping out farmers to shoving odd social issues down our throats, Texans switched parties. There was a time you could love God, drive a truck, hunt and believe in two genders and be a good Democrat. That time is long gone. Which brings me to the next point.
When a political party is hopelessly behind their rival party very rarely does it inspire smart, normal folks to step in to take over. Like the El Paso Republican party, it becomes the home of weirdos... weirdos with big egos. The party falls further back as their "leadership" starts to resemble the crowd at the International Convention of Loud Idiots. Texas' Democratic factions county to county have suffered the same fate.
What all that means is that when Beto ran and inspired all those people to go vote straight ticket Democratic, some very strange people won races they would have no chance of winning usually. They road Beto's coattails for the win. Nobody cared who or what was down that ballot - they just grabbed the straight ticket level because it was easy and it for sure cast a vote for Beto.
The worst part is there are now judges sitting that have zero experience in the court room. They just run for office because you can kind of live off your campaign donations for a year and it looks good on a resume. They had no intention of winning... and then they did. And now you have courts that are way backed up because when a judge doesn't know what he or she is doing - they just stop doing anything. They grant delays and essentially hide hoping it all goes away. Insiders at the state party are horrified because they finally picked up some seats, but they are occupied by crazy people... which is a bad look for Democrats in general. Anywho - you get the point - people who wouldn't normally win, won... because of turnout and straight ticket voting.
All of that is going away in 2020 and it's going to be very interesting how things work out for the down ballot races. First of all, there will be no Beto at the top of the ticket... well, maybe Beto will be the nominee. However, the incredible hard work and buzz can't be replicated. It was a one shot deal. Even if Beto is the nominee, voters will be able to easily cast a vote for him - given the deletion of the straight party option will put the presidential contest as the very first item on the ballot. All the other Democrats below Beto (if he's the nominee) have to pray voters stick around and go through pages of names and pick out all the Democrats. Statistically speaking - a good amount of voters give up at around the congressional level. Not all of them - but enough to make a district judge or a dog catcher or somebody with a wordy referendum squirm. Angry people vote - and they are more likely to seek out a name and vote against than they are for it. So Democrats voting in the presidential are going to have to be angry enough to go through the entire ballot voting against Republicans. That's not likely. Republicans, on the other hand - are known for this.
Bottom line - I think you'll see a good Democratic turnout at the presidential level and precipitous drop off after that. Republicans have a good chance of swinging back all those losses to their side as they are more likely to be angry with those newly elected because of the "Beto Effect." In El Paso, where straight ticket is a family tradition, some of the judge races will be a little closer than ever before. Not meaning El Paso is going Republican, but that Republicans voters might hang in there and vote the bottom of the ballot. Non-partisan races should be very interesting because there's now an opportunity to catch the eyes of the many people who used to simply pull the straight ticket lever and leave.
Your thoughts?
It's odd to me someone who received less than 3k votes still yaps his fat mouth.
Posted by: Urmom | July 31, 2019 at 06:36 PM
I have always said that anyone who votes straight ticket is either lazy or dumb - or both.
Posted by: Justwondering | August 26, 2019 at 04:59 PM